Wednesday, November 08, 2006
Election Prognastications
The Election of 2006 is still being entered into the history books but the bottom line is clear. There is a shift back to the Democrats. That was historically predictable with regards to the 2008 Election, but I'm not sure I (for one) expected this shift to come so early and/or be this decisive.
I really didn't have any interest in this Election beyond the Governorship in the State of Florida.. and, as expected, Crist won won over Davis because not only was Davis a poor candidate but Fla typically goes Republican.
My background/area of "expertise" is confined to Presidential Elections. I'll bet that I can accurately predict over 90% of the individual State verdicts ... which will allow me to be relatively close on the Electoral College, but more importantly... 100% accurate on who will Win the big Election.
Obvious it's way too early to predict who will "inherit" the White House in 2008, but I will make the following statements:
The Democrats will get back the Presidency in 2008. I am looking at that from a historical 'shifting of trends' prospective, but I worry that the Dem(s) have an extraordinary track record of screwing up. Reference to Al Gore who truly did deserve the 2000 Election but then didn't come back in 2004 when George Bush was SO vulnerable. They nominated John Kerry, who despite his technical victory resulting from the Primary process CLEARLY had no chance of winning a national election... but came close simply because Bush was/is/has been so unsatisfactory.
GW missed the boat in not replacing Cheney in 2004 in that Dick is SO obviously un-Electable - and the Rebs realize that... Can't understand why GW didn't bring in another VP to groom and set-up for the 2008 Election? Could have blamed it on Cheney's health. Did Bush really think that Jeb would/could continue the dynasty.
I understand that many of the 'exit polls" today indicated that many voters didn't vote Dem as much as they voted against Rep. This sentiment will likely heighten by the time the 2008 Election rolls around. I believe that the Democrats will reclaim the White House... unless they screw it up. That is always possible.
I really didn't have any interest in this Election beyond the Governorship in the State of Florida.. and, as expected, Crist won won over Davis because not only was Davis a poor candidate but Fla typically goes Republican.
My background/area of "expertise" is confined to Presidential Elections. I'll bet that I can accurately predict over 90% of the individual State verdicts ... which will allow me to be relatively close on the Electoral College, but more importantly... 100% accurate on who will Win the big Election.
Obvious it's way too early to predict who will "inherit" the White House in 2008, but I will make the following statements:
The Democrats will get back the Presidency in 2008. I am looking at that from a historical 'shifting of trends' prospective, but I worry that the Dem(s) have an extraordinary track record of screwing up. Reference to Al Gore who truly did deserve the 2000 Election but then didn't come back in 2004 when George Bush was SO vulnerable. They nominated John Kerry, who despite his technical victory resulting from the Primary process CLEARLY had no chance of winning a national election... but came close simply because Bush was/is/has been so unsatisfactory.
GW missed the boat in not replacing Cheney in 2004 in that Dick is SO obviously un-Electable - and the Rebs realize that... Can't understand why GW didn't bring in another VP to groom and set-up for the 2008 Election? Could have blamed it on Cheney's health. Did Bush really think that Jeb would/could continue the dynasty.
I understand that many of the 'exit polls" today indicated that many voters didn't vote Dem as much as they voted against Rep. This sentiment will likely heighten by the time the 2008 Election rolls around. I believe that the Democrats will reclaim the White House... unless they screw it up. That is always possible.
# posted by kidovid @ 8:21 PM 
